Respectfully, Michael P. Ivy, Edmonton, Alberta. Ditto. My guess is probably not. That's consistent. Yet, although the author’s proposition is interesting and quite bold, the author does not discuss it sufficiently, nor does he provide a clear alternative on how to put in place a research agenda based on his idea of DRE. contrast, an internally consistent model will avoid the Lucas critique.) I believe these are simply unnecessary, unrealistic and therefore inappropriate. The main argument is that that the parameters of the econometric models used for policy analysis and of course predictions should account more carefully for expectations. Are there other arguments to be made around NK and the Lucas critique? it did anything about the Lucas critique, but because it solved an internal "An agent that became more impatient, and so wanted to consume more by borrowing, but also wanted to work more hours (and so exhibit less impatience in their consumption of leisure), would appear to behave inconsistently unless their preferences or prices also changed. Actually we can rework the point about how actors make choices to address the question of why more modest assumptions about rationality don't get traction in economics:Looking at the economic profession, which is a more credible explanation of how economists choose models and assumptions?1) They make rational decisions based on all the information available.2) They do what seemed to work recently for other actors "near" them. sensible way. Reply to Erich Pinzon-Fuchs Comments on “The Lucas critique: A Lucas critique”. So why is it ignored? In contrast to what Mr. Pinzon-Fuchs suggests, however, I do not start with this proposition nor do I aim at proving it. 4) The author claims that “the message of the Lucas Critique is an ontological one” (p. 9), meaning that the Lucas Critique, applied at the level of the model selection problem, can tell us something important about the way uncertainty works in the real world. It is treated as exogenous in many models exactly because technological progress is too complicated for us to model. Friedman used to accuse Keynesians of "forgetting things we used to know" - surely RE people have done the same here. Fact is, agents responded very rationally to real low rates and because of a lack of Fin. representing the former, then union attitudes to the wage/employment trade off But it is not to the previous case. The costs of re-optimizing every time you face something new don’t always offset the benefits from making what may be only a slightly better choice. Related thoughts here:http://rajivsethi.blogspot.com/2010/11/foley-sidrauski-and-microfoundations.htmlI've been enjoying your posts on microfoundations, though have never commented before. Actually it is a central insight of Keynes' General Theory. so wanted to consume more by borrowing, but also wanted to work more hours (and The overall assessment of the reviewer is somewhat critical, however, which is why I would like to take this opportunity to respond in detail. If so, we would rather need an epistemological or even ontologic response to the Lucas critique. What is meant by a sensible way? The title of our paper “Criticizing the Lucas Critique” must be read together with its subtitle “Macroeconometricians’ response to Robert Lucas,” meaning that it is not us (the historians) who criticise Lucas, but that we want to recover and study the macroeconometricians’ contemporary reactions to the Lucas Critique, which have been left aside in the “standard narrative.” Our research, again, is focused on criticising the “standard narrative” of the history of macroeconomics which has been produced by practitioners of macroeconomics, including Lucas, in order to get a richer and broader narrative that takes into account all the players of particular episodes in the history of macroeconomics. Archived. The paper draft will be amended by adding explanation and corrections according to the above discussion. Robert Lucas. At this stage, I would only caution against the expectation that a specific model would be able to remedy the Lucas critique in its entirety. (In fact, I sense an impossibility theorem there but, regrettably, I am not (yet) able to prove any.) An Essay on the Principle of Population. started being more concerned about employment than wages, we might expect Rational expectations is the Lucas' solution to the inconsistency issue raised by the Lucas critique: if a model is based on rational agents, and those agents have expectations, then those agents necessarily have rational expectations. Inflation expectations remain anchored. "So, if someone decides to form a small business and borrows money to buy equipment and works longer hours in hopes of making the business a success, then he or she is inconsistent. A Critique of the Lucas Critique. After Woodford’s Keynes, J. M. (1921). Note that there are many mechanisms that can produce the appearance of (some approximation to) rational choice -- for example imitation of surviving actors. The rational expectations hypothesis is only one way to consider these reactions, but it is not the only way (see Goutsmedt et al. Prepared for the Conference in Honor of Robert E. Lucas Jr. Abstract: We examine the role of off-path “superstitions” in macro-economics, and show how a false belief about off-path play is the key element underlying both the Lucas Critique and the game-theoretic … Keynes’s Economics: Methodological Issues. The idea that a model which does not fit the data can be useful for policy analysis has no possible philosophical basis. parameters of the rule agents’ use to forecast inflation are not deep parameters, In conclusion, we point out that Lucas’s critique reveals a fundamental flaw in Lucas’s own, popular ‘solution’, i.e., the so-called forward-looking rational expectations models. I note that the "deep parameters" are two things, because the word "eexogenous" has two meanings. Discussion of the Lucas critique often involves the need to However, before doing so we first have to understand the effect DRE has on the available solutions to the Lucas critique (positivist part). In fact you can assume only very local knowledge and very basic choice -- kind of like gas molecules bumping around, converging on a global equilibrium. A very good example of this is To sum up my answer to the first main criticism, I certainly agree with the referee that the implications of DRE for macromodelling needs to be thoroughly discussed. Most obviously, we mean that individual agents within the model In order to meaningfully do so, I recur to what I call deep rational expectations (or DRE when using the referee’s abbreviation). Lawson, Tony (1985a) “Keynes, Prediction and Econometrics.” In Lawson, Tony and Hashem Pesaran (eds.) validity or otherwise of the microfoundations approach, but instead just try I simply state the facts without taking sides. This main proposition is, in the opinion of the reviewer, that “the concept of (fundamental) uncertainty […] is potentially able to reconcile rationality, model consistent expectations and the Lucas Critique” (quoted from the paper). Discussion of the Lucas critique often involves the need to model in terms of ‘deep’ parameters. ‘subject to the Lucas critique’. I will address these major two points here and discuss the reviewer’s other comments in an extended version of this reply. model in terms of ‘deep’ parameters. Second, it has a bearing on the idea often put forward that microfounded models In that case we would Monetarist Rules and the Lucas Critique: The rational expectations hypothesis has challenged the key assumption of the monetarist school, namely, stability (constancy) of the velocity of money. consumers to recognise this in thinking about how their future income might Goutsmedt, A., Pinzon-Fuchs, E., Renault, M. and Sergi, F. (2016). If we think that In this note we apply the Lucas critique to macroeconomic modelling using deep rational expectations. Now I understand why the Phillips Curve has lasted as long as it has. a sensible way to policy changes. microfoundations is all about the Lucas critique, then this mistake is I'd very much like to understand why this approach isn't more widely pursued. The novel feature, therefore, is to apply the Lucas critique to itself. that is independent of (exogenous to) the rest of the model. Lawson, Tony (1985b) “Uncertainty and Economic Analysis.” The Economic Journal, Vol. But if microfoundations is about internal 13. Notably, Sargent described these conversations soon after being awarded the Nobel memorial prize. This seems really excessive. The problem is that the model bears little resemblance with the reality.Many explanations can probably be found, but there are two that I would like to propose:- Economic agents are not that rational as individuals (they don't maximize their utility) as individuals. One wants individual decisions to respect budget constraints both within individuals (if I consume more with no change in income I must borrow or reduce saving) and across individuals (if I buy more of your output your income must rise). However, I am finding that my discipline is sorely lacking in its ability to observe reality and is instead getting increasingly lost in quantitative exercises that really have no bearing on the economic problem, in my opinion. Therefore, what is considered a solution to the inconsistency problem of economic policy modelling is, in fact, not a solution. is inflation expectations. log in sign up. Bravo, Rajiv! Instead, the normative part, which is about offering a solution to the known issues, really made all the difference. Borrowing to invest is not the same as borrowing to consume. In other words, my paper is at the same time less ambitious than the referee thinks (proving a proposition) but also more ambitious in that it turns Lucas’ criticism against his solution. When studying the impact of DRE, I consider it most efficient to first focus on the mainstream solutions because, whether we like it or not, these are defining the scientific and public economic discussions at large. Looking at the financial crisis, which is a more credible explanation of the actual choices of financial actors?1) Make a rational decision based on all the information available.2) Do what seemed to work recently for other actors "near" you. However, hardly any economist would define her/his job as that of seeking for an “underlying truth that waits to be discovered.” Much more evidence and historical work should be undertaken here in order to support the author’s claim. Micorfoundations reconsidered: the relationship of micro and macroeconomics in historical perspective. – The abstract is incomplete and should be revised. agents. To him, economic fluctuations are largely the effects of shocks in competitive markets with completely flexible wages and prices. had no bearing on the Lucas critique, which applies to any policy, benevolent Thomas Malthus (1798). All this is well known and the article is a good summary of the issues at hand. London: Macmillan and Co., Limited. FooBar FooBar. He developed the "Lucas critique" of economic policymaking, which holds that relationships that appear to hold in the economy, such as an apparent relationship between inflation and unemployment, could change in response to changes in economic policy. are just for policy analysis, but not for forecasting. Rather, rushing in another answer bears the risk of getting it wrong again and wasting (again) countless resources on a flawed approach. Press J to jump to the feed. Gregory Clark (2007). In conclusion we point out that Lucas’ call for rational expectations models that provide useful economic policy advice has yet to be heeded. The author’s uncritical acceptance of the standard narrative is revealed at different points in the paper. It has been a pleasure for me to receive Mr. Tsoulfidis’ comments and recommendations. A trivial example is if the They were also very interested in taking models seriously, that is treating them as hypotheses to be tested. (1) Economists associated with Keynesianschools of thought typically see the Lucas critique as perpetuating fallacies of compositionin their attempt to model the macro system from its micro constituents. Individual behavior can be inconsistent (as it often is) and yet macro behavior approximates consistency. Micro founded New Keynesian economics in particular is lousy with variables which are treated as exogenous to the model simply for convenience and which then are assumed to be policy invariant for no comprehensible reason.The usual rant follows.Certainly a micro founded model could be much better at forecasting. No one thinks that technology is really exogenous (it doesn't fall out of the sky). I am sure that the reviewer’s input will thus significantly benefit the readers of the article. Given that the paper has important normative elements, there is a need for both a more thorough and detailed discussion of the actual use of DRE in macroeconomic modelling, and for a concrete illustration of its use. Therefore, I conclude my abstract “Lucas’ call for rational expectations models that provide useful economic policy advice has yet to be heeded.”. And there's a very powerful, well understood set of tools in statistical mechanics available to build, analyze and prove results about these models. That we relaxed mark to market.....do we dummy up for moral hazard? The Lucas critique has been and continues to be the cornerstone of modern macroeconomic modelling. An agent that became more impatient, and ... Chapter One: The Sixteen Page Economic History of the World. A closer analogy would be somebody who decided to work more hours and suddenly started buying a new car, a Rolex, some electronic gadget every month, and so on on a credit card, while making the minimum credit payment every month. They are parameters which we have reason to hope are exogenous to the economy and, in particular, not influenced by policy. This pragmatic decision notwithstanding, I certainly subscribe to the view that the Lucas critique deserves a critical rather than an over-optimistic interpretation. In his paper, Christian Müller-Kademann proposes a re-interpretation of the Lucas Critique through the introduction of the concept of deep rational expectations (DRE). Published. Following this vision, the author does not recognise, as does Lucas (1976, p. 20, footnote 3) for instance, that macroeconometricians were well aware of the fact that the implementation of policies could change the agents’ behaviour and hence the structure of the model, making the model unable to evaluate economic policies. Suppose instead of a labour supply equation, we had wage Tsoulfidis L. (2010) Competing Schools of Economic Thought. Moreover, I would argue that the most interesting macroeconomic phenomena, booms and busts for example, arise through the resolution of plans that are found to have been inconsistent. And from a theoretical point of view, it is also quite interesting. In this project, we follow other historians of macro such as Duarte and Lima (2012) and Forder (2014), among many others. Why do European Economists write Letters while US ... House prices, consumption and aggregation, Handling complexity within microfoundations macro. inflation and output, but this was disconnected from consumers’ utility. London: The MacMillan Press Ltd. Duarte, Pedro and Gilberto Lima (2012) “Introduction: Privileging micro over macro? But we Yet, a closer look at Lucas’s (1976) paper shows that this is not necessarily the case. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts . model contains a labour supply equation and a consumption function that are FooBar . This led to the development of New Keynesian economics and the drive towards microeconomic foundations for macroeconomic theory. If the economy is depressed, they believe it will remain depressed (and vice-versa).A model based on non-rational expectation-free agents would be consistent. What is the literature's conclusion? The Lucas Critique says that if a certain relationship between two economic variables has been estimated econometrically, policy makers, in formulating a policy for the future, cannot rely on that relationship to persist once a policy aiming to exploit the relationship is adopted. 9,897 1 1 gold badge 21 21 silver badges 55 55 bronze badges $\endgroup$ $\begingroup$ Surely we sometimes observe inflation rates In this sense, and citing John Stuart Mill (1844) hastily, the author claims that the Lucas Critique “seriously challenge[s] if not outright reject[s]” economists’ “relentless search for newer, better models” and their “ontological view of an underlying truth that waits to be discovered” (p. 9). 174 New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation Richard Mash Department of Economics and New College University of Oxford October 2003 An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Econometric Society North American Summer … This is a higher death toll than Covid despite a smaller global population (obviously Covid isn't over yet and the figure of 1.2 million will sadly grow but even so it is likely the death toll will remain comparable to 1968, and when adjusted for population growth the deaths per 100,000 people will remain lower). But I'm more concerned about the assumptions about agents of the sort you discuss in your post on the hetrodox vs. superhuman agent. (2015). Introduction Tile fact that nominal prices and wages tend to rise more rapidly at tile peak of the business cycle than they do in the trough has been well recognized from the time when tile cycle was first perceived as a … Berlin Heidelberg: Springer. Keynes, John M. (1921) A Treatise on Probability. more general than the Lucas critique. Chapter Two: The Logic of the Malthusian Economy. macroeconomics new-keynesian-economics. Gapminder: Wonderful animated graphs on health, incomes and other things. In this note we apply the Lucas critique to macroeconomic modelling using deep rational expectations. And, to repeat, you can get simple tractable equilibrium models just fine with assumption (2). In this note we apply the Lucas critique to macroeconomic mod- elling using deep rational expectations. are easier to derive. Summing up my responses to Mr. Pinzon-Fuchs’ report, I would like to offer once again my gratitude for the thorough review and helpful suggestions. The jump to assuming that, since we don't understand it, we can assume that it is not influenced by policy is completely unjustified and absurd. Honestly, the FED is chasing 6.5 and 2 on the Phillips Curve. This is certainly possible, but yes it would be inconsistent. (1976). Rational Expectations And The Lucas Critique According to Phillips curve, one could achieve and maintain a permanently low level of unemployment merely by tolerating a permanently high level of inflation. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Lindé, Jesper, 1999. For more the author would improve the argument by addressing two questions: First, to give more information about the properties of the chosen model in which, one way or another, expectations must be accounted for and in this sense the author must say more about the properties and consequences of the rational expectations. The Lucas critique is just an example of consistency between The idea was that if central banks cause inflation in an attempt to pump up growth, people will start expecting higher inflation in general, and the inflation-growth relationship that held in the past would change. Lucas Jr. was heavily influenced by … and clarify two different motivations behind microfoundations. I rather think that we should not err again in hastily ranking a solution higher than a proper analysis of the problem just because it seems to be a solution. The Lucas Critique was applied by Lucas to invalidate many of the "Phillips Curve" models of the 1970s. As a result, these parameters are not necessary given but variable. Econometric policy evaluation: A critique, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1(1): 19 – 46. This observation indicates that “market” success of economic arguments is more likely when a solution to a known problem can be offered. I think that the author’s proposition needs to be thoroughly researched and discussed and that, to do so, the author should study and refer to Keynes (1921) as well as to the secondary literature that also focuses on Keynes’s ideas on uncertainty and probability. They respond to the inconsistencies between the bible and the evidence by saying the world works in mysterious ways. The General Theory of Employment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics 51(2): 209 – 223. The full reply is available at https://www.s-e-i.ch/Projects/FiscalPolicy/LucasReply2comment1.html (including a printable version). Consumption and investment are generally treated differently in macroeconomics. This interpretation of the Critique is quite common and has to do with the spread of a “standard narrative” of the history of macro (and of the Lucas Critique). In this sense, the author should precise that he is not taking the Lucas Critique itself to another level, but rather the rational expectations hypothesis. because (under rational expectations) they depend on how policy is made. A deep parameter (like impatience) is one that is independent of (exogenous to) the rest of the model. The monetarists believe that it is possi­ble to stabilise MV= PY, nominal GDP, by imposing a fixed-money rule. Consumer’s decisions will Introduction Thinking of equilibrium as the result of non-equilibrium learning suggests that players are likely to be better informed about the consequences of actions on the equilibrium path than off the equilibrium path. (Even if I would have said 'conundrUMS' ;). I mostly agree but guess that you don't go far enough. evolve. asked Feb 5 '15 at 16:53. 380, pp. Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians’ Response to Robert Lucas, Universite´ Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01364814, HAL. Lucas (1976) considers examples where agents’ expectations of policy behavior enter into their optimization problem, and so parameters relating to policymakers’ rules appear in the agents’ first-order conditions. 2015). Instead, they will often – or even usually – make use of various rules of thumb and/or passively accept the default option. It could very well be that this critique (its positive part that largely coincides with Goodhart’s law) implies that a model solution may be impossible. 13. Though a great deal of ink has been spilled since the 1970s penning complicated, mathematical treatments of the Lucas Critique, its core claim is elegant in its simplicity: Now let us unpack the five key terms in that core claim: model, policy, policy variable, policy rule, and optimal. Sargent did that and rejected their models. But the intertemporal implications are of course different. Lindé, Jesper, 2000. Unlike earlier posts, I make no judgement about the A treatise on probability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. analysis, nearly every macroeconomics paper followed his example: not because "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 311, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 25 May 2000. Some important references in this sense are Lawson (1985a; 1985b) and Carabelli (1988). Erich Pinzon-Fuchs raises several interesting issues and offers suggestions for amending the paper as well as valuable additional input. consistency issue. consistent? I don't have an axe to grind with you fine practitioners of macro economics. Posted by. If, for example, the union In fact, Lucas (1976) argues that the macroeconomic models which have been built to make policy evaluation, should take into account a careful description of the optimising behaviour of individual economic agents and in particular of their reactions to changes in economic policy. 1) One of the main propositions in the paper, namely that macroeconomics should introduce Keynes’s concept of fundamental uncertainty is, in my opinion, insufficiently treated. Lucas 7 years ago. As a result, your comment may not appear for some time. Lucas Critique (LC), with its empirical validity still under debate more than four decades after its inception, has serious policy implications. This is the key insight that I humbly ask to be accepted. There is no way of not agreeing with the referee that the main proposition of my paper is indeed that fundamental uncertainty holds the key for reconciling rationality, model consistent expectations and the Lucas Critique. Lucas critique means you necessarily have a microfounded model, you are wrong. If we wanted to model unions as representing Simon, there are several notions of consistency that a model could satisfy, and not all of them are methodologically desirable. called rational expectations a ‘consistency axiom’. Robert Hall. The Lucas Critique was in 1976 and gives examples to show that the standard and well known keynesian approach to econometrics is not terribly useful from the standpoint of policy. Moreover, since policy has not allowed for price discovery since 2008, we are apt to repeat the very same mistake. First, if you believe that avoiding the the only kind of inconsistency that matters. supposed to represent the behaviour of the same agent. Basically, it states that purely empirical relationships (relationships between variables that are estimated from the data without backing from economic theory) cannot be used to do meaningful counterfactual policy analysis. What do we mean when we say a model is internally If monetary policy changes to become much harder on This is a well written critical review on the so-called Lucas Critique. So unfortunately this approach predicts its own lack of adoption. A Critique of the Lucas Critique. For those interested Therefore, although I very much endorse the idea of a holistic approach to the history of the Lucas critique, I think it justified to start with “the `standard narrative’ of the history of macroeconomics built by Robert Lucas himself and by other practitioners of macroeconomics” (Mr. Pinzon-Fuchs). It implies no model (as the term is used by economists).Notably Lucas and Prescott were very interested in forecasting and hypothesis testing. But, the Bernanke FED is coercively forcing behaviour that simply would not otherwise occur in the market place in its current policy absence. In this note we apply the Lucas critique to macroeconomic modelling using deep rational expectations. It does not follow, however, that the discovery and the description of the problem itself is unimportant. User account menu. Both the ‘Lucas critique’ and the ‘Keynes’ critique’ of econometrics argued that it was inadmissible to project history on the future. this. Once a policy changes, expectations can change and keynesian econometrics didn't handle that. (In In conclusion we point out that Lucas’ call for rational expectations models that provide useful economic policy advice has yet to be heeded. The Lucas Critique: Estimated functional forms obtained for macroeconomic models in the Keynesian tradition (e.g. can have a similar discussion about workers and unions: if the latter aimed at (2015) “Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians’ Response to Robert Lucas,” CES Working Papers, 2015.59. so exhibit less impatience in their consumption of leisure), would appear to 909-927. In conclusion, I think that the paper is interesting and has potentially something important to say. Bristol BS6 5BZ, Any simple model of irrationality will give predictable deviations between forecasts and reality (somewhat like the easily predictable excess returns described in financial markets in the 60s which persist to this day). References. You write, "I would argue that the most interesting macroeconomic phenomena, booms and busts for example, arise through the resolution of plans that are found to have been inconsistent. A history of conflicting positions,” in Duarte and Lima (eds.) A policyis any action (like setting the interest … ECONOMETRIC POEICY EVALUATION: A CRITIQUE Robert E. Lucas, Jr. 1. "This was one of Frank Hahn's central themes in his under-appreciated critique of rational expectations models that piggy-back on GE results without incorporating complete markets in contingent claims.And thanks, Simon, for all your interesting posts on this subject. Posted for comments on 21 Feb 2018, 12:13 pm. Before this work, macroeconomists had typically assumed that a The paper pretends to do more than announced in the abstract. or not. In 1976, Robert Lucas published a contribution that since has had an enormous impact on modern macroeconomics. kind of inconsistency if you are interested in analysing policy. internal consistency is the admissibility criteria for microfounded models. It would not satisfy the Lucas critique, but that does not matter because the critique would not be relevant in that context. A Farewell to Alms. - Forbes. Eric Smith and Duncan Foley have done this in "Classical thermodynamics and economic general equilibrium theory" JEDC 32, 7-65. http://www.santafe.edu/~desmith/PDF_pubs/DYNCON2011.pdf Turns out you can build quite powerful and useful models without unrealistic assumptions. I do generally agree with his views and am confident that according ammendments to the paper manuscript are rather straightfoward. My choice of starting with the standard interpretation should not, however, be mistaken for a wholehearted support. share | improve this question | follow | edited Feb 5 '15 at 17:03. When I discuss the microfoundations project, I say that We should not do so even though the history of the Lucas critique has shown that the “solution” seems to be more important than the critique. This has to do, in particular, with the assumption of an uncritical stand towards the “standard history” of macroeconomics as defined by Duarte and Lima (2012). almost certainly depend on expectations about the wages unions set. matter? This whole discussion of consistency depends on very strong assumptions -- for example you say that a model can't be considered micro-founded unless consistency can be analytically proved!! benevolent policy maker would minimise some quadratic combination of excess I will refrain from posting my answers to these issues here also in order to save space. But a complicated theory of irrationality does not imply an inconsistent model. Lucas’ research has been pursued by the new classicists. policy maker maximising the representative agent’s utility? One more time – good policy takes account of risks... Currency Misalignments and Current Accounts, Modeled Behavior - We're economists covering everything economics. If we did not, we would want to make sure these agents interrelated in a It is what one would expect from supporters of a completely failed research program. While criticizing the Keynesian economics, Lucas offered an alternative interpretation of fluctuations. But exogenous also just means unmodelled. There are even less so as a collective aggregate of individuals (herd behavior).- Most economic agents don't make predictions. In addition, I cannot publish comments with links to websites because it takes too much time to check whether these sites are legitimate. The reviewer also comments on some specific issues not yet mentioned such as the definition of DRE and the question of whether or not the Lucas critique yields an ontological message and what the ultimate goal of macroeconomic research is. changed. Quite to the contrary, it is Lucas’ and his followers’ — not mine — main selling proposition that hardly any other solution but his offers mathematical elegance, flexibility and overall appeal. I think their approach to reasoning about the world is indistinguishable from say Prescott's. So if I plan to retire early and move to warmer shores, someone today must anticipate the greater demand for housing in Florida that will arise in a decade. Finally, the paper will improve if the Lucas critique is contrasted with the Goodhart’s laws which appeared simultaneously and independently of the Lucas Critique and essentially they are not very different. Lucas (1976) explicitly recognises that Jan Tinbergen and Jakob Marschak were aware of this problem since, at least, the 1940s. Oxford University Press. In essence, the issue is whether an econometric model isolates “invariants” of … behave consistently in making their own decisions. In this respect the author must bring into the discussion some more results from the empirical macro-econometric literature. They have no expectations at all. For example, when the author asserts that the Lucas Critique was a “devastating attack on the […] common approach to macroeconometric modelling” (p. 2); that the critique was “convincing” and “successful,” and that macroeconomic models had “achieve[d] consistency” (p. 3) thanks to the Lucas Critique. 2. I think if one listens to Lucas today, I would concede that the above discussion suggests that our discipline hasn't learned very much since Lucas 1976. (1985). Subscribe to the RSS feed for new comments, © 2020 World Economics Association The Lucas critique has been and continues to be the cornerstone of modern macroeconomic modelling. In fact they give terrible forecasts. to their highly acclaimed macroeconomics. I do so because the more widely a method is accepted the more scrutiny it should face if we want to spend scarce scientific resources wisely. Jacobs University Bremen Department of Economics and Business Administration Email: chri.mueller@jacobs-university.de Abstract The Lucas critique has been and continues to be the cornerstone of modern macroe- conomic modelling. agents: consumers and unions. My objective, rather, is, to apply the Lucas critique (its analytical, or positive and also less original element) to the solution of the Lucas critique (its normative, very original and highly influential part). I can think of two reasons. A model that did not have that feedback would be setting by unions. I am sorry to say that I cannot — as yet — offer a solution to the modelling inconsistency arising from DRE. should not be independent of worker preferences. 95, No. Here the Robert Lucas was awarded the 1995 Nobel Prize in economics “for having developed and applied the hypothesis of rational expectations, and thereby having transformed macroeconomic analysis and deepened our understanding of economic policy.” More than any other person in the period from 1970 to 2000, Robert Lucas revolutionized macroeconomic theory. If everyone saves more, the economy as a whole does not get richer, rather it collapses. My paper is, however, focussed on the internal contradiction of the Lucas critique. Does anybody really believe that is tenable? Goutsmedt, A. et al. However it was a glaring example of inconsistency – why wasn’t the This assumption is indefensible in the absence of complete futures and contingency markets - there is simply no mechanism to bring about such consistency. inflation, then rational agents will incorporate that into the way they form The Lucas critique, named for Robert Lucas 's work on macroeconomic policymaking, argues that it is naive to try to predict the effects of a change in economic policy entirely on the basis of relationships observed in historical data, especially highly aggregated historical data. consistency, then it is easier to see how a microfounded model, Arguments for ending the microfoundations hegemony, Costing Incomplete Fiscal Plans: Ryan and the CBO, Multiplier theory: one is the magic number, Facts and Spin about Fiscal Policy under Gordon Brown, The Lucas Critique and Internal Consistency. Its an interesting discussion talking about the rationality of agents and structural consistency. consumers as workers, we would want to align their preferences, so we are back Reg., TBTF, et al structural methodological inadequacies, we created a boom that would otherwise not have occurred under normal price discovery. Enhancing this understanding is the main purpose of the paper. In this sense, most of the ideas expressed in this paper could benefit from a reflexive examination of the history of the Lucas Critique that does not stem from the “standard narrative” of the history of macroeconomics built by Robert Lucas himself and by other practitioners of macroeconomics. 2)The author presents the Lucas Critique in an over-optimistic and uncritical way. The author’s over-optimistic and uncritical interpretation of the Lucas Critique makes more harm to the author’s arguments than it helps him in making his point. Economic agents, firms and institutions in any country under the administration of financial and fiscal authorities are directly influenced from policy objectives and regime changes.